Planning for Change in Uncertain Times: Multiple Scenario Planning for Tribal Tourism

In uncertain times, tribal tourism planners need a framework that allows for quickly evaluating their programming and, if necessary, redirecting to adapt. Projecting several scenarios and their potential outcomes is one planning technique that can help improve the capacity of a tribe or an organization to shift direction when needed.

Rethinking strategic planning to include non-linear techniques, while keeping the strengthening aspects of an assessment, retrofits this value planning method to the worldview of tribal communities. If a situation becomes unacceptable or unstable, mastering adaptive skills offers opportunities to thrive beyond survival.

Scenarios are stories of probable futures, based on possible changing conditions, such as visitor interests, pandemics, natural disasters, weather issues or fluctuating funding. With well-researched scenario development, planners find themselves able to shift quickly, with minimal delays from off-guard surprise!

The following are examples of conditions defined in a planning process.

In uncertain times, tribal tourism planners need a framework that allows for quickly evaluating their programming and, if necessary, redirecting to adapt. Projecting several scenarios and their potential outcomes is one planning technique that can help improve the capacity of a tribe or an organization to shift direction when needed.

Rethinking strategic planning to include non-linear techniques, while keeping the strengthening aspects of an assessment, retrofits this value planning method to the worldview of tribal communities. If a situation becomes unacceptable or unstable, mastering adaptive skills offers opportunities to thrive beyond survival.

Scenarios are stories of probable futures, based on possible changing conditions, such as visitor interests, pandemics, natural disasters, weather issues or fluctuating funding. With well-researched scenario development, planners find themselves able to shift quickly, with minimal delays from off-guard surprise!

The following are examples of conditions defined in a planning process.

Visitation restrictions: Developing a balanced approach to tour services, outdoor spaces for activities, and on-line outreach increases the ability to continue services. Outdoor screens or performance areas meeting distancing requirements are two possible scenarios to consider. Alternatively, for spaces unable to open to the public, a new scenario might be collaborations with tribal museums to present valuable online content. The shift by SWAIA to Santa Fe Indian Market online during the COVID19 pandemic shows the ability to redirect quickly (www.swaia.org).
A shift in national or local interests: Aiming for a balance of generational and audience segment interests, keeping up with visitor surveys and market research can provide valuable information on new demographics to explore, if one or more audience segments are unable to visit.
Tourism visitation trends: International and domestic flight travel restrictions or limited personal income could indicate a need for increased efforts in marketing to regional audiences. To attract those seeking closer-to-home activities, consider including a variety of local interest activities in your programming.
Fluctuations in funding: Following a diversified funding strategy, framing tourism projects under several topics (e.g. education, cultural preservation, employee training), broadens potential funding sources and helps leverage new funding opportunities. Expanding the reach of programs and funding at the Poeh Cultural Center and Museum (www.poehcenter.org, Pueblo of Pojoaque) by offering online art classes, is an example of continued programs during the pandemic.
Internet presence: Online exhibits, learning activities, interpretive tours, speaker programs, and cultural arts courses allow for a rapid shifting of focus when physical visitation is limited. The itineraries on www.discovernavajo.com are a good example of linking available opportunities into a travel experience, with options for different conditions.
This article recommends planning at least three scenarios, to include:

The retraction or minimal scenario (decreased resources);
The current level scenario; and
The optimal or expansion scenario (increased resources).

Being clear on performance measures is fundamental when measuring the progress of redirected scenarios. All too often evaluation is conducted at the end of a project, not accommodating the entire redirection process. By phasing projects and allowing for periodic evaluation, shifting direction becomes measurable, allowing for a greater chance of success.

Plus, when being clear about the decision-making processes, redirecting becomes a natural process rather than one of internal debate. Evaluation ties heavily into the flexibility and ability-to-change-direction process.

In summary, the multiple-scenario tourism plan incorporates decision-making processes and points into timelines. Innovative sources of funding are likely to occur with readiness in place. Flexibility is key in uncertain times, empowering the ability to shift!

Susan Guyette, Ph.D. (Métis, Micmac and Acadian French) is a planner with 30 years of experience working with tribal tourism, cultural centers and museums nationally. Her recent book Sustainable Cultural Tourism features a cultural-value based method for developing and managing networks of enterprises. Resilient Museums: Adaptive Planning for a New Era is in press.